Terra Ag Weekly Water update - 16th August 2021
Allocation day today in the system summarised as follows:
Murrumbidgee +2% - if we can’t catch inflows above the dam wall then it won’t be allocated is the general message. We can expect a few more of these types of announcements in the coming months, Carryover has been revised back to 22% for the valley, so an effectively full allocation will mean G/S needs to reach 78% this season
NSW Murray +4% - as expected this system is running with good momentum now, ~113GL was put against the borrow from the Barmah environmental account (237GL to go) which should be cleared off in the next 2-4 weeks altogether further releasing G/S allocations beyond this hurdle
Vic Murray +6% - on trend. As expected, the Hume is in a spill phase, the unknown is how much Vic resource will spill in the next 4-8 weeks. There is a significant buffer to wear this spill before the spillable accounts take a hit, all this very much a big unknown being so early in the season
Goulburn +7% - continuing to build comfortably to full allocation. Expect to see IVT call outs later next month and onwards
The underlying theme across the Murrumbidgee and Murray systems is best summarised as high carryover from last season, combined with high dam levels is leading to lagging allocations due to the fact that spills are occurring in three major dams supporting these rivers. Airspace releases continue in attempts to hopefully capture late spring inflows via snow melts and favourable BOM forecasts, so much attention is being placed on the wet spring outlook by the relevant state water departments that perhaps another alternative to manage these dams might be to allocate on G/S now for impending drawdown in spring for annual crop demand.
Usage is going to start picking up late this week and definitely in the coming 2 weeks as spring comes in. The Western Riverina has been patchy this year with local rainfall therefore I think we will see a large degree more of pre-watering this year than last which will help pick up the usage. This early-season usage will also assist with allocations in the coming 2-3 months particularly if the catchment can see the Bureau’s forecast come into play.
Allocation markets:
Murray River below choke - $120
Murray River above choke - $80
Goulburn – $95-$100
Murrumbidgee - $95-$100
Sellers sought for Temporary Supplementary within MIA – CALL to discuss pricing
Permanent Entitlement markets:
FOR SALE: 3,000ML Murrumbidgee General Security - $3,000 wet
FOR SALE: 1,050ML Murrumbidgee High Security - $8,000 wet
FOR SALE: 300ML Lower Murrumbidgee Zone 2 Groundwater DRY – $4,000
Murrumbidgee High Security – offers at $7,300 wet
Murrumbidgee General Security – offering $2,300-$2,350 wet
Murray (above choke) General Security – offering $1,700 wet
As always, please call to discuss any enquiries or requirements you have.
Regards,
Grant Volz
Director – Terra Ag Rural Agencies
Unit 30, 16-24 Whybrow St, Griffith NSW 2680
