Weekly Water Update - 19th April 2021
Allocation trade has been mostly steady the last few weeks as seasonal harvests are either underway or seeking to be wrapped up in the coming weeks, Water NSW has today announced that a further 30GL of Murrumbidgee resource will be deliverable to the lower Murray for May. Overall this will equate to ~250GL of available water transferred to the Murray system. As a result the market may be starting to see the early signs of prices converging for allocation markets, it is likely that this latest announcement may create greater movement for the Murray/Goulburn allocation prices than the Murrumbidgee pricing (see below). Given the shift in supply along the valleys the Murray may display downside in price over the course of the next 2-3 weeks, it is likely the Murrumbidgee will hold range bound at $45-$55
Carryover will be an interesting wrap-up for this season in light of further delivered volumes from the point of highest supply (Murrumbidgee) to the area of greatest delivery risk (Lower Murray) – whether this allocation remains in the Lower Murray (and therefore below choke) or move into other areas where carryover space is more easily available will have major pricing movements in the final months of trading for the season. Based on today’s numbers it would be unlikely that up to 250GL of Vic Murray water will be left on High Reliability accounts come season’s end. The most supplied carryover space today is NSW Murray (above choke) at $65 however presents its own challenge in terms of moving this water to other trading zones on the opening of the new season
Forward water has traded at $155/ML in the Murrumbidgee last week with further volume available at $160-$165/ML. There has been minimal activity in this market along the Murray system with last reported forward contract struck at $160 within Murray Irrigation district.
The weather outlook is quiet with no meaningful fronts showing rain potential for the next couple of weeks at least
Allocation markets (as at this afternoon):
Murray River - $70-$75
Goulburn – as above
Murrumbidgee - $50-$55, market has firmed the last week and confirmed with this morning’s IVT announcement likely to provide a further two opportunities for trade to move through to the Murray
Top Opportunities – All Enquiries Welcome
Permanent markets buyer interest of note in the following zones:
Murrumbidgee High Security – offers at $7,100 dry
Murrumbidgee General Security – offering $2,200 dry
Murray (above choke) General Security – offering $1,600 dry
300ML Lower Murrumbidgee Zone 2 Groundwater DRY – $4,000
800ML Lower Murrumbidgee Zone 3 Groundwater DRY – $3,600
Murrumbidgee River Temporary Supplementary (current season) – offering $10/ML – up to 1,000ML
Murrumbidgee Irrigation Forward Supplementary (delivery 1st July) – offering $45/ML – 1,000ML
Murrumbidgee Carryover (Holders Risk) – offers $100/ML – call to discuss if you would like to sell your carryover space
As always, please call to discuss any enquiries or requirements you have.
Regards,
Grant Volz
Director – Terra Ag Rural Agencies
Unit 30, 16-24 Whybrow St, Griffith NSW 2680
M: 0418 916 031
F: 02 6964 6095
