Weekly Water Update - 11 Feb 2021
Good rainfall was observed across the upper catchments this last 7-10 days with some falls up to 150mm for the week in places, across the board the majority of the Murrumbidgee and Murray catchment areas recorded between 60-90mm for the event. Run-off has been mixed given the timing of the year however early autumn/winter season rain could continue to build from this point in a similar pattern to 12 months ago – if this is the case expect to see dam level responses respond much quicker – Allocation announcements next Monday should see NSW Murray +3% and Vic Murray getting to its 100% allocation
With summer cropping watering likely to be in its last 4 weeks (the exception being some late crops) falling demand is also being assisted by rainfall, a cooler finish and for some the supplementary flows in the Murrumbidgee – dam levels at this point in the season are in very good shape:
With the current position of the Murrumbidgee catchment, its possible that the MDBA continues to order water from the Murrumbidgee beyond February to preserve Hume dam levels, regardless the Goulburn deliveries of 40GL per month will continue well into autumn keeping this lower Murray market well supplied in what is a sluggish-demand position. It’s also firming up likely that the NSW Murray can repay its debt, currently 338GL, to the CEWH this remaining water season and move into the ’22 season on a clean slate further highlighting the position of this catchment as positive
Carryover markets are starting to kick into gear – Murrumbidgee space quoted at $115/ML, Murray (above choke) $65/ML, Goulburn $50/ML, Murray (below choke) no space to be found to gauge buyer willingness. Perhaps this position supports the buyer demand to pursue Vic L/R Licence (below choke) up to $1,300/ML this last week. Usage of current season water has been down on previous years in all areas thus creating further demand this early in the season for carryover space
Allocation markets are steady on this last week however the feeling is further downside could persist:
Murray River - $100 – Inter-valley trades placing pressure on underlying prices, above and below choke considered at -$10 spread
Goulburn - $95 – Inter-valley trading will open in February so it is likely that price parity will remain
Murrumbidgee - $40 – buyer demand has fallen away after the last couple of weeks and could yet continue to drift lower in the coming week(s)
Forward water markets have traded at $185-$190 this last week with volume still available for sale
Top Opportunities – All Enquiries Welcome
Permanent markets buyer interest of note in the following zones:
Murrumbidgee General Security – offering $2,250 wet
Murray (above choke) General Security – offering $1600 wet
300ML Lower Murrumbidgee Zone 2 Groundwater DRY – $4,500
800ML Lower Murrumbidgee Zone 3 Groundwater DRY – $3,600
70ML Murrumbidgee High Security - $7,000 DRY
Murrumbidgee River Temporary Supplementary (current season) – offering $15/ML – up to 1,000ML
600ML Lower M’Bidgee Zone 3 Temporary Groundwater – OFFERS WELCOME
New Season Forward Allocation – Sep/Oct ’21 delivery - $185/ML – CALL TO DISCUSS
Murrumbidgee Carryover (Holders Risk) – offering $110/ML