WEEKLY WATER UPDATE 05/10/2021
The significant weather event from last week has steadied all zones activity levels, rainfall can be summarised as follows:
Lachlan Valley: mostly reported falls between 50-80mm
Murrumbidgee: 30-50mm in the West and 75-100mm across the ranges and slopes
Murray Valley: 25-50mm across the valley and ranges
Dam releases are continuing with Burrinjuck releasing 21,000ML starting from yesterday, Hume Dam releasing 23,000ML/day and may increase further if required
Allocation announcements in the Murray boosted allocations along, this trend likely to at least continue for some time as inflows accrue into Hume. The spills from Victoria are now starting to be incurred against spillable accounts, the Vic Water Resource Manager stating that 89GL had been spilt to the 1st October with this to continue at a minimum in line with dam releases. It is possible that the spillable accounts could be written off completely in the coming fortnight if inflows are maintained, if this were to happen the write-off of consumptive water could be as high as 150-200GL
Given the length of access to Supplementary flows in the Murrumbidgee usage of UCF balances is likely to have been significantly utilised during the last 2-3 months, which in theory suggests that Murrumbidgee allocations are at 80-85% today (also allowing for average carryover at 22%). Therefore future inflows to push these allocations to 100% will not need to be significant for this to occur, so it’s possible the Murrumbidgee could be moving to a full allocation by end of this month/early November. This would equate to 280-300GL of captured/stored inflows, usage in the valley should allow for most of this balance to be created in airspace during the next 6-8 weeks
The Murray is in a similar position, when allowing for average carryover at 42%, implied allocations today are 97%. An additional 200GL of inflow to NSW share of storages should provide for the difference
Overall it would appear that allocation markets are mostly pricing in the above situations, with summer crop planting well underway for cotton, and rice to commence soon enough, the demand for allocation will be strong on a crop to crop basis. Allocation pricing is back probably $15-$25/ML in the last 3 weeks and is showing signs to be stabilising at current levels
Allocation markets:
Murray River below choke - $115
Murray River above choke - $80-$85
Goulburn – $85-$90
Murrumbidgee - $85-$90
Lower Murrumbidgee Z3 Groundwater –CALL
Sellers sought for Temporary Supplementary within MIA and River – CALL to discuss – 1500ML
Permanent Entitlement markets:
Permanent markets continue to see support for NSW General Security, all zones, and Murrumbidgee High Security. Recent parcels have achieved $8,250/ML during a period where overall supply and forecasts are favourably placed. This equates to bids having lifted $500+ in the last month in order to secure this entitlement
FOR SALE: 34ML MIA High Security - $8,250/ML inclusive of 21/22 allocation
FOR SALE: 3,000ML Murrumbidgee General Security - $3,000 wet
FOR SALE: 1,050ML Murrumbidgee High Security – Seeking Offers
FOR SALE: 300ML Lower Murrumbidgee Zone 2 Groundwater DRY – $4,000
Murrumbidgee General Security – offering $2,400wet
Murray (above choke) General Security – offering $1,700 wet
As always, please call to discuss any enquiries or requirements you have.
Regards,
Grant Volz
Director – Terra Ag Rural Agencies
Unit 30, 16-24 Whybrow St, Griffith NSW 2680
M: 0418 916 031
F: 02 6964 6095
