Weekly Water Update - 30 Sep 2020

• Australia is officially experiencing a La Nina weather pattern according to BOM as of yesterday…interestingly the US modelling agency NOAA suggested the La Nina was already underway in a media release 3 weeks ago. No one season is ever the same and La Nina conditions are no different however, the probabilities of increased rainfall are certainly much greater – see below image summarising the last 13 La Nina events (decile 5 would be an approximate average rainfall event)

• Current dam levels are certainly well primed for a late event with Murrumbidgee storages around 80% and Hume closing in to 70%, it is unlikely that Dartmouth will be required at all this season other than for translucent flows in the Mitta valley system, and the Goulburn will be called on by the MDBA in the coming 4-6 weeks to commence IVT deliveries into the lower Murray to assist delivery

• I commented last week on the buy-side of the market assessing the level of carried over water and deliveries of forward allocation sales, the recent outlooks/forecasts/probabilities of improved rainfall may suggest that allocation markets are range bound until the next major event (heatwaves/rainfall/dam spill/IVT call outs), the lack of underlying trade in all trading zones suggests that the next movement is possibly lower for allocations markets until buyers step in to support. Until then supply will continue to accrue with allocations and seasonal outlooks. Summer crop demand is starting to take shape with annual crop sowing windows now open, and permanent crops accelerating through spring – on face value it appears the annual crops are well covered for early season requirements/use

• Spill risk in the Murrumbidgee is certainly a risk to monitor, less likely in the Murray and Goulburn – for tomorrow’s allocations I estimate the following could be allocated:

  • Murrumbidgee G/S – 2-3%

  • NSW Murray G/S – 3-5%

  • Vic Murray HRWS – 4-6%

  • Goulburn HRWS – 6-8%

• Allocation markets are steady with minimal traded volumes to support pricing direction:

• Murrumbidgee asking $160 today, minimal trade to comment on or therefore support market

• Murray (below choke) asking $28-285 today

• Murray (above choke) trading at $180-185

• Goulburn trading at $190, steady

• Murrumbidgee Groundwater (Zone 3) - $100

• Interest in General Security entitlements, all areas/zones, continues to rise with confidence in allocations – especially as the three month weather outlook trends in a similar direction

• Permanent markets buyer interest of note in the following zones:

  • Murrumbidgee General Security – offering $2,100-$2,150 wet

  • Murray (above choke) General Security – offering $1500-$1550 wet 

• Dam Levels: 

Current Opportunities – All Enquiries Welcome

Permanent 

• All parcel sizes for G/S entitlements (Murray or Murrumbidgee) sought - CALL

• 300ML Lower Murrumbidgee Zone 2 Groundwater DRY – $4,500

• 800ML Lower Murrumbidgee Zone 3 Groundwater DRY – Make an Offer