Weekly Water Update - 9 Sep 2020
Allocation markets have strengthened this week despite allocations last week on the back of warmer weather, what some observers have described as a downgrade in the BOM outlook (more on that below), and summer crop seed orders gathering momentum:
Murrumbidgee trading at $170-$175 today, +$30 from last week
Murray (below choke) trading at $300 today, +$50 in one morning’s trade this week
Murray (above choke) trading at $210 last trade, +$40 from last week
Goulburn trading at $190, +$20 from last week
With the exception of the downstream Murray trading areas with that erratic market movement this week, all other zones are seeing stability at these prices and possibly will be so moving into next week’s allocation announcements (next Tuesday). A couple of percent for both Murrumbidgee and Murray valleys possible, beyond this it really does become a question of which weather forecast will be most accurate? If dry conditions persist then allocation prices move up another $30-$40 on average, if we turn into another bust of rain it could be a larger correction the other way. Reports of winter crops being sacrificed for a summer crop, Rice, are doing the rounds which forms part of the explanation to the week’s pricing movements. As growers secure seed water positions are taken on accordingly
See below chart measuring probability of at least securing 150mm of rainfall between now and end of November, 90% or better for majority of the catchment area. In Murrumbidgee’s position with dams at or above 77% further supply is easily assured, for the Murray this event if accurate enough should push Hume dam towards 75% leading to a low expectation for bulk transfers from Dartmouth for this year…and almost be a certainty that there would be no call of Murrumbidgee IVT water this year
See below chart released from BOM this week – yes it is different to previous models provided (i.e. not as bullish)….if 50% probability of exceeding the mean is an average season then probabilities of exceeding the median greater than 70% are still very good in light of rainfall received Year to date. Meanwhile the prospects for Lake Eyre are looking very good for next year….
So, the season will go one of two ways…the forecasts sour and dry weather returns and we see support for increasing allocation prices…or the forecast holds and allocations will continue to rise along with dam levels
Permanent markets, all areas, are firming with buyer interest of note in the following zones:
Murrumbidgee High security - $7,500 wet
Murrumbidgee General Security – offering $2,060 wet
Murray (above choke) General Security – offering $1500-$1550 wet
Dam Levels:
Current Opportunities – All Enquiries Welcome
Permanent
All parcel sizes for G/S entitlements (Murray or Murrumbidgee) sought - CALL
300ML Lower Murrumbidgee Zone 2 Groundwater DRY – $4,500
800ML Lower Murrumbidgee Zone 3 Groundwater DRY – Make an Offer
