Weekly Water Updates - 20 Aug 2020

Aug 20

Following Monday’s allocation announcements temporary markets have pulled well below $200/ML – Murrumbidgee settling at $150-$155 this week. Burrinjuck dam is forecast to pick up a further 20-40mm across it’s catchment over the weekend, Blowering forecast for 40-60mm, which assuming this comes through as forecast will likely ensure further allocation releases against General security on the 1st September. The possibility of a further supplementary event is also looking favourable depending on if those heavier falls below the Blowering dam wall translate. Will know more on this by Monday next week

Further south, The Murray river has also seen temporary markets adjust down to $240-$250/ML following its allocation releases. Between 60-80mm is forecast above Hume dam this weekend, Dartmouth 40-50mm, which will certainly continue the momentum for inflows and the likelihood of allocation on the 1st September. I will provide a further update on this next Monday as inflow data is better understood

Goulburn valley following trend with the Murray, temporary water down to $180-$190/ML. Similar rainfall forecast for this catchment over the weekend

IVT operations for the season (indicative):
- Murrumbidgee – as water availability in this valley improves its appearing less likely that the MDBA will “call” on the Murrumbidgee to deliver, if a call is made on the Murrumbidgee the total delivery might only be 15-40GL across the summer period to assist with deliveries
- Goulburn – between 250-280GL is being indicated to be delivered through the Goulburn IVT this season, based on current operations and maximum flow rates allowable in the river this could see the IVT commence in October/November and run through to April. The Vic government last week announced that there will be no mandated changes to the Goulburn river IVT until at least the 1st July 2021 (next season)
- A reminder these scenarios are going to change, but for the moment provide some indication of how the system will be run over the duration of this season, my view is whilst this wet pattern continues in terms of recent rainfall there will be little requirement on the Murrumbidgee to deliver this season, Goulburn to pick up the difference and transfer 250-300GL for the season

Permanent markets, all areas, are firming with buyer interest of note in the following zones:
- Murrumbidgee High security - $7,550 wet
- Murrumbidgee General Security – offering $2,050 wet
- Murray (above choke) General Security – offering $1500-$1550 wet
- Call to discuss further (buying or selling)